This afternoon at 2:20 PM ET, the Diamondbacks will square off against the Cubs at Wrigley Field in what promises to be an exciting matchup. The Diamondbacks are entering the game as slight money line favorites at -106, and both teams have a lot at stake.
Pitching Matchup
Justin Steele will take the mound for the Cubs, marking his 15th start of the season. Steele has shown flashes of brilliance, posting a 2-3 record and a respectable 2.71 ERA. He has also turned in eight quality starts, including a most recent outing where he pitched seven scoreless innings. Steele's performance at home has been solid with a 3.16 ERA, slightly higher than his 2.96 ERA on the road.
For the Diamondbacks, Ryne Nelson will be the starting pitcher. Nelson has a 6-6 record with a 4.99 ERA, and a WHIP of 1.42. Opposing batters are hitting .296 against him. Although these numbers suggest some struggles, it's worth noting that Nelson has made six consecutive starts without surrendering more than three earned runs, indicating a level of consistency that could play a crucial role in today's game.
Team Performance
The Diamondbacks currently hold a 49-48 record, placing them second in the NL West, trailing the Dodgers by seven games. They come into Wrigley Field on a strong note, having a 4-1 record in their last five away games. The team has also managed an impressive run line record of 4-1 over the same span. The Diamondbacks' offense has been potent, averaging five runs per game—second-best in MLB. However, their recent 8-7 loss to the Blue Jays after holding a substantial lead might be a point of concern.
On the other hand, the Cubs have a 47-51 record and are currently fifth in the NL Central, sitting 8.5 games behind the Brewers. The Cubs have shown a spark recently, going 7-3 in their last ten games, and boasting a 4-1 record in their last five home games. They have struggled within their division, with a 12-21 divisional record, but have performed well as home underdogs with a 9-5 record.
Offensive Contributions
For the Diamondbacks, Christian Walker has been a force with 22 homers, while Ketel Marte has chipped in with 19 homers. Despite these individual performances, their recent loss to the Blue Jays highlights vulnerabilities that could be exploited.
The Cubs are averaging 4.2 runs per game with a team batting average of .235. Nico Hoerner has been in excellent form, hitting .378 over his last nine games. Christopher Morel has also contributed significantly, hitting three home runs in his last eight games.
Game Projections
The game features an over/under line of 7.5 runs, with both teams riding three-game over streaks. The Diamondbacks have a 6-4 record when the over/under line is set at 7.5, and 84.5% of their games surpass this line. Similarly, 67.3% of Cubs games surpass the 7.5 run line, and they hold a 12-10 record when this line is set.
In terms of individual projections, Justin Steele is expected to notch six strikeouts, while Ryne Nelson is projected to get four. Steele is also anticipated to concede fewer runs than Nelson.
With both teams vying for crucial wins, today’s game should be an intriguing battle. The prediction stands at a narrow victory for the Diamondbacks, 5-4, but given the dynamics at play, fans can expect a closely contested matchup at the iconic Wrigley Field.