As the NBA prepares to welcome its newest class of rookies, the Rookie of the Year (ROY) award race garners keen attention. Historically, this honor frequently goes to the most productive rookie scorers—half of the last ten winners topped rookie scoring charts. It's illuminating to note that half of the past 16 ROY recipients were No. 1 overall picks, demonstrating the substantial expectations placed on top draftees.
Interestingly, a select few ROY winners have emerged from beyond the top five picks, such as Damian Lillard and Malcolm Brogdon, adding an element of unpredictability to the race. Since 2003, only four big men have claimed the award: Emeka Okafor, Blake Griffin, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Victor Wembanyama, reflecting a distinct preference for guards and wings in recent years.
This Year’s Draft Class: An Overview
The 2024 draft class arrives with tempered expectations, considered among the least promising in NBA history. The top two picks are seen as projects and notably do not play guard positions. This sets the stage for intriguing dynamics when evaluating rookie performance.
Reed Sheppard: The Top Pick Guard
Among the guards, Reed Sheppard stands out as the highest-picked guard from the 2024 draft class. Facing intense competition in Houston’s backcourt, it remains to be seen how significant his impact will be. Nonetheless, the sentiment around Sheppard is clear—"They badly need his shooting," a testament to his potential value on the court.
Shooting Struggles: Castle, Holland, and Sarr
Shooting accuracy is a critical factor for rookie success. Stephon Castle’s 26.7% from three-point range at UConn and Ron Holland's 23.9% in the G-League highlight areas for improvement. Meanwhile, Alex Sarr, who shot a dismal 19.1% from the floor at Summer League, seems disadvantaged by his current environment. As an insider noted, "Playing for Washington kills Sarr’s candidacy because he has nobody to set him up," underscoring the challenges he faces.
Expectations and Rotations
In Memphis, Zach Edey is relatively certain to start, drawing comparisons to Jonas Valanciunas as he molds his game. On the Timberwolves, Rob Dillingham is projected as a future replacement for veteran Mike Conley, a role that could see him develop significantly over time.
Portland's rookie Donovan Clingan finds himself behind seasoned players Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams III, potentially limiting his opportunities. Similarly, Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels compete with rookie Zaccharie Risacher at forward on a team led by Trae Young.
In Utah, Isaiah Collier faces tough competition from Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson, while Dalton Knecht’s minutes on the Lakers are curtailed by the presence of Austin Reaves and D'Angelo Russell.
Assessing the ROY Contenders
Previous ROY races have shown the importance of opportunities and fit within team structures. Last season, Brandin Podziemski and Jaime Jaquez Jr. received votes outside the lottery but did not seriously contend for the top rookie honor. Assessing this year’s class, the path to the ROY award might be one of the most open and contentious in recent years, given the numerous variables at play.
Understanding these dynamics will be central to predicting who has the best shot at claiming the 2024 Rookie of the Year award. With several high-impact rookies navigating diverse team environments and roles, the upcoming NBA season promises no shortage of excitement and drama.